Seahawks RBOTF? (Photo credit: Marvin Gentry-US PRESSWIRE)
Pickle is a quite the versatile noun, isn’t it? It can be a synonym for a person’s head, a challenging problem or situation, the male sex organ, and of course a cucumber preserved in a pickling liquid. No, I’m not planning to write about the Seahawks’ sex organ (if such a thing even exists). I’m actually participating in a contest that challenges you to use the phrase “sex organ” as many times as possible within one paragraph. Three is pretty good, is it not?
The draft isn’t that close, but now that football is officially over, all everyone will talk about is Peyton Manning. Wait … fuck. Screw Peyton Manning. I’ve got nothing against him, and in fact I’d be pretty jazzed if, for some inconceivable reason (sorry Johnny), he chooses to play for the Seattle Seahawks. But that ain’t happening, so let’s move on and talk about the draft and a scenario that I feel is highly likely to unfold.
I tweeted earlier that my gut feels strongly about the Seahawks front office targeting, and drafting, Trent Richardson if given the chance. (Aside from the FO’s intentions, it’s highly likely he’s available at #11/12 overall; there aren’t any really RB-needy teams in the top 12). When I first saw a mock draft some time ago with Trent going to the Seahawks in the first round, I gagged on the shitty, lazy analysis that led to that prediction. Because at first blush, it’s a pretty stupid prediction. I mean – the Seahawks are in desperate need of a QB, multiple pass rushers, and arguably another offensive lineman and interior defensive lineman. They’ve got Marshawn! (sort of). Bees’ Mo’! The guy that defined the word ‘determination’!
Let’s look deeper, shall we? Take my clammy, small hand and I’ll lead you to my creepy-ass cabin in the woods and change your life forever. Yeah – my Seahawks analysis is that good. The Seahawks do need better play at the QB and pass rushing positions, most notably. I don’t think that requires much explanation. But think instead of the most important pieces of the current Seahawks team. If you had to pick the top five most impactful players on the team, who would you chose?
Here’s my list: Earl Thomas, Marshawn Lynch, Russell Okung, Chris Clemons and a toss-up between Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor. Now let’s think of the depth players that back up each of those magnificent men. Which position would have the biggest fall off in production? The Seahawks defense on the whole is pretty young and talented; losing any of the defensive players I listed would hurt, but it wouldn’t be a death blow. Okung went down for the season and was replaced by Paul McQuistan who actually did a pretty decent job filling in.
Now that brings us to Marshawn. What happens if he goes down? I’ll give you a hint: it starts with “w” and ends with “e’re fucked”. Take all the time that you need. The Cleveland game is the closest example we’ve got to a Seahawks offense without Marshawn. Granted, a lot of other pieces were missing as well: Tarvaris was still sidelined due to his pec injury; Zach Miller and Max Unger were both injured and inactive as well. But how did Leon Washington and Justin Forsett perform in Lynch’s stead? Dreadfully. They made it quite evident then, and again throughout the season taking snaps here and there, that they aren’t even close to every down backs. They are situational at best, and should not be counted on as injury replacements.
Oh yeah, and Marshawn Lynch is a free agent who will be 26 for the 2012 season. His return, my friends, isn’t guaranteed.
We’re back to now. It’s the day after the Super Bowl. The Seahawks need to pull the trigger on a QB this year. Hasselbeck would have never survived behind the current, young offensive line; Charlie Whitehurst was a failed experiment; Tarvaris Jackson can’t finish games and struggles to make decisions when the game rides on his arm. The offense is young and growing; it should have a young QB growing with it.
It’s unlikely a QB worthy of the #11/12 overall pick will be on the board at that time. The only two guys worthy of consideration at that draft position are Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. So let’s operate under the semi-safe assumption that the Seahawks will not pick a QB with their first pick. They’ll likely then pick a QB in the second round; they’ve been linked to guys like Kirk Cousins (Michigan State) who very well may be available in the early second round. So let’s say the Seahawks draft a developmental, “tier II” QB, like Cousins, in the 2nd round. Now we assume that Tarvaris Jackson acts as a bridge, and said young QB will start in 2013 when Tarvaris’ contract has expired. I think this is all highly possible. Let me know if you think I’m way off base, here.
Marshawn Lynch will be 27 years old when young QB starts his first year as a Seahawk in 2013. How do young QBs fare when starting after one year on the bench? Not usually well. This guy will need a few years to really get going, get a solid grip on the game, and get into his prime. When he starts entering his prime, the Seahawks have the best shot at contention. It’s not often teams with poor QB play win Super Bowls. So let’s pretend that’s three seasons later: 2016. In 2016, Marshawn Lynch will effectively be dead. Who cares what his age will be (fine: he’ll be 30 years old for the 2016 season).
Now rewind a bit: it’s 2012 and the Seahawks are on the clock at the #11/12 pick. Wait … how old will Marshawn be when the QB of the future is in his prime? Oh, right: thirty years old. That’s the pickle. The big, big pickle. And here’s what it all means: Marshawn Lynch is a bridge running back. The likelihood that the Seahawks will be in position to contend with Marshawn Lynch as the young, feature back is very slim, unless some sort of godly quarterback somehow drops into the Seahawks’ lap. Which won’t likely happen.
So, we’re back to draft day. Seahawks are on the clock at #11/12. How old would Trent Richardson be when our QB of the future is in his prime (which we’ve agreed is 2016)? He’d be 26 years old. On a team with a coach that preaches a tough running attack to balance the passing attack. Starting to make sense?
Having a guy like Trent Richardson would give the Seahawks one helluva two-headed monster of a running attack during the ‘bridge’ years. Trent Richardson is a very special running back that is likely to be far and away better than any running back drafted after him this season. Marshawn Lynch’s effective NFL career would be extended, as he’d be occasionally spelled by a talented, tough back like Richardson, and it would ease the pressure on our current QB (Tarvaris Jackson), and help soften the landing for the young QB that starts in 2013.
So where does that leave the pass rush? Chris Clemons can’t do it all himself, after all. Well let’s look at the past two years and the Seahawks sack leaders. How were they attained? Trades and free agency. Chris Clemons was part of a draft day trade; Raheem Brock was signed as a free agent, etc. They have not drafted a defensive end and I don’t expect them to do so this year. The defensive end position has a notoriously high learning curve, and a DE drafted in 2012 likely wouldn’t have much impact in the near future.
I’m not trying to convince you that Trent Richardson is the right choice. I’m sure plenty of you will be firmly against drafting him, seeing as the Seahawks have two huge other gaps that beg to be filled. I’m trying to show you the thought process behind such a decision 1. is logical, 2. is realistic, and 3. matches the types of decisions (and actions) the Seahawks front office have made.
Do I want this scenario to happen? Maybe. Can I see it happening? Absolutely.
The Seahawks Asylum 
I am torn on this idea….The idea of having T-Rich on the Hawks is very, very appealing. I could easily talk myself into it. Plus, a running back is one of the few positions that you can be confident in them being a week 1 impact. But I have also bought into the school of thought that quality running backs are the easiest position to find in the mid to late rounds. If we believe that they were interested in Ingram last year, as some have suggested, then we have to believe they will take a loooong, hard (not a pickle reference) look at Richardson. Great write up, Nick.
Thanks Erik! In terms of Ingram, Trent Richardson, from my understanding, is far and away a better running back prospect coming out of college. There hasn’t been a prospect like Richardson in a very long time. We’re talking getting an Adrian Peterson-like back. That’ll be tough to turn down at the 11th/12th pick if available. But I also tend to agree with you: good running backs can be had in the middle rounds. I just worry about the availability of backs by the time the Seahawks are up in the 3rd round. I have to believe the 2nd round pick will be reserved for a QB; will there be anyone left on the board to justify our 3rd round pick?
Hey Nick,
Great write up. I tend to believe your scenario as I seem to remember PC saying something about adding “impact” players. I don’t think many rookie players could have a more immediate impact than TRich.
I agree. Between the ‘usual’ suspects linked with the Seahawks in the draft (Quiten Coples, Courtney Upshaw, etc), I keep coming back to Trent Richardson as a guy that is most likely to have the biggest immediate (and possibly long-term) impact. And thank you for commenting on my blog =)
Good write up and agreed, there isn’t anyone other than the top two QB’s that will make that kind of impact. And the plus is that with a running back, the impact is usually felt right away, rather than year 2-3 like QB’s and defensive lineman. It’s rare to see an impact done by a DE unless that person is really special. The other problem is you go for Couples or Ingram and they totally bust and you have really nothing to show for them.
Honestly there are plenty of Curtis Enis’s out there, but the chance of a RB busting is much less than taking a lineman with a high pick with so many question marks.
I agree, Justin. Richardson will be a huge impact the moment he takes the field. And the Seahawks offense needs as much production it can get. I believe they’ll go after pass rushers in free agency.
Deja vu. Mike Holmgren felt the same way. His explanation was almost the same when he drafted Shaun Alexander.
While I would certainly not complain about the drafting of Trent Richardson, I have certain issues with the selection. What happens with Marshawn Lynch’s contract in the offseason? Lynch’s play over the last 14 months warrants a long-term contract; he has earned it. His performance on the field has inspired not only the team and locker room, but also the city of Seattle, which has grown to embrace “Beast Mode.” Seahawks management while negotiating with Marshawn will more than likely apply the franchise tag, to keep him under contract for 2012, that will pay Lynch approximately $7M+ for one year. We all saw the level of play from Marshawn in a “contract year” in 2011, and at only 25, there is no reason to suggest that he would be unable to replicate the success of 2011 in 2012, provided he remains healthy. However, the agent for Marshawn has stated he is seeking a 3-5 year contract for his client, and Marshawn echoes the sentiment of “finding a home.” Should the Hawks franchise Lynch and draft Richardson, I can’t see either RB being given a fair opportunity. Lynch has proven his right to receive, at the very least, a multi-year deal at the prime of his career while Richardson is so immensely talented that wherever he ends up, deserves a chance to compete to start and earn a minimum of a 50/50 time share. Lynch would feel slighted by the pick, with his successor already splitting carries with him and knowing his future in Seattle would soon end. This is a scenario that he has already seen in his time at Buffalo with the emergence of Fred Jackson. Lynch’s play will suffer.
Chris, in this scenario, a few things happen:
1. Lynch is re-signed before the draft. (He’d be stupid to wait until after the draft to accept a contract, considering RB needy teams would simply draft one for a fraction of the cost).
2. Lynch would be the lead back, even with Richardson on the roster.
3. Richardson would slowly be brought into the mix. He’s a rookie, after all. In 2012, Marshawn would likely get 75% of the carries, and the remaining 25% would be split by Richardson and Washington. And in 2013, it’d like be a more 50/50 split, a la the Panthers running both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. In 2014, Richardson would probably take the majority of the snaps as he’d be entering his prime and Marshawn exiting his, and in 2015, Marshawn would likely be cut before the season begun (considering he’d be 29 with a fair amount of wear and tear).
For a team that’s so dependent on the running game, there’s can’t be just Lynch and a 3rd/4th round pick sitting behind him. There’s too much risk. Without an above-average running game, the Seahawks offense will be very ineffective, seeing as Tarvaris Jackson proved in 2011 that he is incapable of taking an offense on his shoulders (couldn’t finish Falcons game, withered at the end of both the Redskins and second 49ers games).
I like your logic, Nick. However, one major point I was trying to convey was the deterioration of Lynch’s game when he feels unwanted. He had two solid years in Buffalo and then when he got hurt, he was never really given the opportunity to shoulder the load as Fred Jackson had emerged as a better all around back than Marshawn. He played his heart out for a coach that once recruited him to USC for the opportunity to be “the guy.” He earned the opportunity and should be given a 3-4 year contract worth $20M, with $15M guaranteed, it won’t break the bank. I just don’t see the Seahawks willing to pay 2 running backs starter money. Richardson will get $4M a year for 3 years based on the rookie pay scale. I appreciate your use of the Carolina Panthers and DeAngelo and Stewart, but at the same time I can tell you, with 100% certainty, that will NOT be used as an example in support of drafting Richardson and keeping both. The Panthers quickly became a doormat in their division and fired their front office and coach.
If any coach can manage the situation of one ‘starting role’ split between two players, it’d be Pete Carroll. In my opinion, of course! And if Lynch can’t mentally handle it, then he’ll be dealt with (traded, cut, whatever). The running back position CANNOT rest on the shoulders of one player without another capable player ready to take over (or supplement) if need be.
As for the Carolina example: I was simply drawing a comparison of running games. I’m not in any way insinuating that Seattle will model their team or even offense off of Carolina’s. But two feature backs is done in this game, and it is done successfully by a few teams. The Seahawks will probably need to do the same thing until they’ve got a legitimate quarterback that can do more than manage games, but instead win them with his skill and arm.
(P.S. The Panthers never made much of an attempt to replace Jake Delhomme when he started to exit his prime, and that’s the reason I feel the declined to doormat status. Sadly, the Seahawks did the same thing with Hasselbeck and are now paying the price with below-average talent at the QB position and now rely on a running game for offensive production).
With the Seahawks ability to scout talent in the later rounds or even undrafted FA’s (e.g. Richard Sherman, Brandon Browner, and Doug Baldwin), there is no reason to suggest they couldn’t find a viable change of pace back for Lynch and pass on Richardson to address a more pressing need. Potential unrestricted FA’s include two starters at linebacker, David Hawthorne and Leroy Hill. Personally, I do not see them re-signing both. Leroy Hill is not much of a pass rusher and isn’t getting any younger (He will be 30 years old in September). Hawthorne however will be 27 in 2012 and is emerging as both a team leader and impact player. That still leaves the Hawks with a big hole to fill at linebacker, IMO a more important need than at RB. A player, whose name Hawks fans will want to familiarize themselves with, is another member of the Crimson Tide…OLB/DE Courtney Upshaw. I am almost certain that if the Seahawks aren’t planning a shock the world trade up to number 2 for RGIII, this guy is at the top of their big board. At 6-2, 273 LBS, this guy is a monster, he has good straight line speed, is an excellent hybrid OLB/DE, and is someone the Seahawks can line up behind Clemons—if Chris doesn’t sack you, Courtney will. He has a natural instinct at crushing quarterbacks (8.5 sacks last season) as well as being a dominant force against the run. The Seahawks haven’t had a guy like this at LB, ever. Think James Harrison without the bad attitude.
Chris – your same logic could apply to drafting a good linebacker in the later rounds instead of drafting him in the first round. In fact, the Seahawks front office has proven they can find talent in the later rounds at the linebacker position (KJ Wright). In my view, Trent Richardson is a far better running back than Courtney Upshaw is a linebacker.
And ask yourself this: which has the bigger impact on the team? Lynch going down and being replaced by a 3rd/4th round guy? Or Courtney Upshaw replacing a guy like Leroy Hill?
My view is undoubtedly the former. Upshaw would have impact, no doubt; he’s a fantastic linebacker that should translate well to the NFL. But the Seahawks defense is already quite strong, and an average linebacker, or a 3rd/4th round rookie would not likely be that big of a step down from Upshaw. Having a 3rd/4th round rookie running back replacing an injured Marshawn Lynch would very likely be completely disastrous.
I would view KJ Wright as more of a stop-gap solution at LB, more so than an everyday, everydown linebacker. The Hawks will have difficulty committing another deal to Leroy Hill given his age and off the field issues. They have to and will resign Hawthorne, but that still leaves a big hole at OLB and a proven pass-rusher other than Chris Clemons. Upshaw fills that gap. If I am being completely honest with you Nick, look at the teams that have been in the Superbowl over the past 2 seasons, only one had a first round draft pick at RB. They ALL have first rounders at LB (Jerod Mayo, Jason Pierre Paul (Hybrid), Mathias Kiwanuka, Half the Steelers’ LBs, and Clay Mathews and AJ Hawk). The drop off for premiere talent at LB is very much steeper than at the RB position. If Lynch went down and we had to replace him with Chris Polk, whom we (should) would have drafted in the 3rd round of 2012, I wouldn’t feel bad in the least. In fact, I would be more worried of Lynch’s career in Seattle mirroring his stint in Buffalo with the emergence of Fred Jackson.
It just depends on who falls to us. There is a good change that Coples and Courtney Upshaw will be gone before we draft. If so it’s because those two teams passed on Trent Richardson.
It won’t break my heart to have two world class running backs. They will both get time and be fresher if they don’t have to carry the ball 30 times a game. RBs are subject to a lot of hits and can get injured, so you have to get backups. I really like Forsett, but for whatever reason he just didn’t play well last year. It’s too bad because he carried the team after Alexander left.
Yes there are RBs you can pick later. I really liked Pead and he will probably be a third rounder. There are others out there. But why not get the best if you can? One defender can make a difference. But a running back that can also catch the ball is a game changer on any play.
Very interesting write-up. A bit out of the Seahawk-box, I’d say, yet compelling.
I think one of the over-riding considerations for picking so high is to take advantage of adding an elite player to the team – almost regardless of need and/or position. Richardson falls in that category.
If a comparable talent were available at DE/DT, that might be the pick, but there seems to be no such player (a Suh, for instance).
Another OOFTSB would be DeCastro. Adding an elite guard (who might play RT until Carpenter gets healthy) would magnify the value of any QB, and any RB.
I don’t think drafting an elite RB hampers the current starter. And one of the aspects of Lynch’s game not called out is how punishing it is, both for him and the defenses. Point as, while a young man, Lynch has a lot of NFL carries on his body. And as you point out, Richardson could extend Lynch’s career without taking away from the starter as one of Seattle’s marquee players.
So all in all, nice idea.
Thank you! I’m hoping the Seahawks draft a lineman to eventually plug into the LG position, as well, but not DeCastro. DeCastro is very much a technician, but not a physically gifted player. We already have a guy like that and his name is Max Unger. I’d be very nervous putting two average to below average guys (physically) next to each other on the offensive line. Big, strong 3-4 nose tackles would salivate at the thought of attacking that gap. Our LG will have to have a bit more physical strength than DeCastro, in my opinion.
The knock on Lynch is that he isn’t going to break off many 50+ yard runs; he doesn’t have the breakaway speed. He has two hands, so he should be expected to catch a pass every now and then out of the backfield. The problem is that with a lack of burner speed, he isn’t going to scare anyone when he catches a pass in the open field. Our offensive line is fast becoming a strength of this team, and I would place Lynch in the top 5 in the NFL at running for positive yards between the tackles. But he won’t beat anyone to the edge, therefore a complimentary back should have those intangibles and skill set that complements Lynch’s running style. UW’s Chris Polk will be available in the 2-3 round range, and he is a great pass catcher and speed back, much like the Bears’ Matt Forte. While Richardson is an exceptional talent, he has some of the same qualities that make Lynch a great running back, as well. They both hit defenders like MACK trucks and won’t go down with an arm tackle. If Upshaw or Keuchly (LB’s) are both gone by our pick, I would even see the Seahawks trading down and collecting a 2nd or 3rd round or both from a team that will have all eyes on Richardson, like the ground and pound Jets. The only way I see the Hawks pulling the trigger on Richardson is if Lynch remains unsigned to a deal longer than the franchise tender ($7M/one year). Immediately afterwards, the Hawks would then look to find a trade partner for Marshawn, perhaps even on draft day. Richardson’s rookie pay would go for approximately $4M/year. I have a hard time believing the Seahawks will pay two (starting) RBs a combined $11-12M/year.
You make interesting points in this comment. But again, I go back to the fact that the Seahawks need QUALITY depth at arguably the most important position of the team. They need two guys that can start and dominate, together. And one eventually would replace the other, keeping the ground game ‘intact’ and undisturbed as one guy exits his prime. The $12 million figure won’t scare Pete or John; most teams pay their starting quarterback more than that. Our starting quarterback is making $4 million and is paid to manage the game. The running backs are the muscles of the Seahawks offense.
The trade-down scenario, by the way, is interesting and wouldn’t surprise me a ton. I’d bet teams like the Jets would pay huge to get a back like Richardson to complement Greene.
Our starting QB is making $4M a year…so is our backup, who will be released. ESPN has the Seahawks as a dark-horse candidate to land Peyton Manning and one of the front-runners to land Matt Flynn from GB, given Schneider’s ties to Green Bay (He was the one who drafted him).
T-Jack will not like it, but he is simply incapable of putting the team and the game on his shoulders to gut out a win; your starting QB must have that mentality and ability. I personally would feel that if the Hawks had Manning at 75% arm strength, Lynch at RB, and Upshaw added to the defense, we would be in the Superbowl, provided we get a full season from Sidney, Mike, Tate, and Douggie B.
A fierce pass rush will make our corners that much better, and Upshaw will provide it.
If we do trade down, I wouldn’t mind so much, as this team has a lot of depth. Richardson is so good, that I think some team will reach for him in the first 10, by trade or by selection. Could be KC, wanting insurance for Jamaal Charles, or the Jets, or even the Raiders if they do trade McFadden (newest rumor from Oakland). Oh and by the way, the Chiefs are selecting right after us, and if they feel we might take Richardson I could see them trading up to prevent that from happening – Trent has gotta be at or near the top of their big board.
Please take no offense, but I feel the link between Schneider and Flynn is lazy and weak at best. He doesn’t personify not one iota of what Pete and John have stated they want in a QB (mobile, athletic, etc). And if they wanted Flynn, why didn’t they go after him instead of Whitehurst? They didn’t, and there wasn’t one peep of it, then or now (it would have come out SOMEWHERE, sometime). And Peyton Manning? I just have a hard time seeing it. He doesn’t fit the rebuild plan, he’d be *very* expensive, he’s very old on a team that’s been getting only younger, etc. Yeah, it’s Peyton Manning. But as a Seahawk? I don’t know. I just don’t see it.
Don’t get me wrong, though, Chris. If Upshaw falls to 11/12 and the Seahawks take him, I, Nick Andron, will be very excited. It’ll be just what the doctor ordered. But with how Pete has been running the team and emphasizing run, I would not at all be surprised if he opts for a fearsome two-headed monster to take the pressure further off of his QB.
Oh and I love the blog, Nick! Not many understand the Football Outsider stats, but good to see that there is at least another person other than me that believes in them.
Good QB play will make Marshawn so much better, too. I really hope that the Hawks have this addressed before draft day with either Manning or Flynn, or at least within the first 10 minutes of draft day. What would you think of a trade to Cleveland of Marcus Truffant, our 2012 #1, and 2013 #2, for their pick at number 4 overall? This would only happen after the first 3 picks are in the books, obviously, as the goal would be for the Hawks to draft RGIII.
Thank you very much, Chris! That means a lot to me.
As for the trade up w/ Cleveland … I don’t see it happening. I think they’ll stand pat and take RGIII. They have no chance of contention any time soon being in a division with Pittsburgh and Baltimore, so offering a guy like Trufant, who’s nearing the end of his prime and beginning to decline, won’t interest them. They need all kinds of offensive talent, and that starts at QB.
Two #1 picks would be the offer from other teams, Truffant would be a kicker to close the deal or make ours appear a better value than the same offer from Washington. I agree that Cleveland stands pat, but not if another team slides into St. Louis’ selection at 2 overall for Griffin. Browns would either go with Blackmon or trade down to a team that needs a premier WR. With what Cleveland got for the Julio Jones trade with Atlanta last year, I could see them hoping for Deja Vu all over again.
Richardson would be a fine choice and he would have the opportunity come together with an outstanding young offensive line to become an outstanding rushing force in the league. If Lynch forces a Franchise tag, they would be in a great situation with Richardson in the wings. If they trade down and end up with mediocre returns and Richardson becomes a first round fantasy football pick somewhere else, it will be viewed as a major misstep by Schneider. My board would definitely have him at the top if he is still available when the ‘Hawks pick. If Richardson is still there at 11/12, the correct response is to say thank you very much and sprint to turn in the card to make him the choice. I suspect Richardson will be long gone by 11/12 probably to a team that traded into the top 8 picks maybe even as high as 4. My best guess at this point given what I’ve been reading is that Brockers or Coples will probably be the choice.
The only real threats to snatch Richardson above the Seahawks would be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But that team needs so much help on defense, I can’t imagine they’d draft Richardson. Someone, like you said, would likely have to trade up. Like Chris mentioned earlier, the Jets would be a likely team to do such a move. They need a better ground game to take the pressure off of Sanchez.
It would be a perfect storm for Richardson to drop to the ‘Hawks but on paper it does look possible given the offensive and defensive tackles that are available for the teams that need them. Rams and Browns definitely need receiver help even if they drop back for a team trading up for RGIII. It just seems like at the end of the day some team will go BPA and ignore a need to not let Richardson’s slide continue but I’d be happy to be wrong. Drafting Richardson at 11/12 would get great grades all around and after the 12th man sees him play, they would never question the wisdom of the pick.
How’s his camp coming? BUST!!!!